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There could be as many as 12 horses entered in the Belmont Stakes. That means that there are as many as 12 horses that can win the Belmont - a lesson that seemingly impossible long shots like Sarava and Da'Tara have forced us to learn over the years.

Courtesy of Docs Sports / Trevor Whenham

There could be as many as 12 horses entered in the Belmont Stakes. That means that there are as many as 12 horses that can win the Belmont - a lesson that seemingly impossible long shots like Sarava and Da'Tara have forced us to learn over the years. But, at least on a theoretical level, the number of horses in the field that actually have a good chance of winning the Belmont is a smaller number. Fairly significantly smaller, I would argue.

When long shots win in this race it is often because something has gone very wrong. In 2008 when Da'Tara won at 38/1, for example, it was because Big Brown, a colt seemingly even more imposing and invincible than Justify, didn't show up to fight on the day. Da'Tara took the lead out of the gate, Big Brown didn't test him like everyone on the planet expected, and Da'Tara cruised all the way around. Big Brown never fired to challenge him and was pulled up before the finish line. It was a mess, and it was impossible to predict.

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So, if we...


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The NFL Draft is in the books. Free agency is in the rearview mirror. Coaching changes have been made, and front offices have been overhauled. There is a lot of time between now and the start of the football season, but what teams look like now will mostly be what they look like when games get underway. So, it's a good time to take a first look at season win totals.

COURTESY OF DOCS SPORTS - By Trevor Whenham

The NFL Draft is in the books. Free agency is in the rearview mirror. Coaching changes have been made, and front offices have been overhauled. There is a lot of time between now and the start of the football season, but what teams look like now will mostly be what they look like when games get underway. So, it's a good time to take a first look at season win totals. The numbers are fresh, and people aren't paying a lot of attention yet, so there might even be some value to be had.

New York Giants ("over/under" 6.5 wins): This team was bad last year. The offensive line is reworked but not great, Eli Manning isn't getting any younger, and Odell Beckham Jr. seems determined to be a distraction. Lots to hate here. Take the under.

Washington (7): I like Alex Smith and like his addition here reasonably well. And Derrius...


Courtesy of Docs Sports

Well, we have almost made it. After more articles leading up to the race than I can count, and countless hours thinking about the horses and the path they have traveled on, we are finally nearly at the Kentucky Derby. I'll admit that as I write this

Well, we have almost made it. After more articles leading up to the race than I can count, and countless hours thinking about the horses and the path they have traveled on, we are finally nearly at the Kentucky Derby. I'll admit that as I write this - Wednesday afternoon - I still haven't figured out how I am going to bet on the race. I have a good idea of what I like and what I don't, but what I will do with those preferences hasn't come clear yet. Luckily, I still have plenty of time. And in the meantime there are some Kentucky Derby predictions that I feel like we can have some fun with today. So, without further ado:

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1. It's not going to be a great day for Todd Pletcher: He has four horses in the field and had a historically strong prep season. But I don't like how things have come together for him in the end. Of his four entries I only view Magnum Moon and Audible as true contenders in this very good field. Magnum Moon drew the 16 hole in the gate. He is a horse that wants to be on...


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